All consumer tech multiples in Q2 here

Below are revenue multiples for publicly traded consumer tech companies we follow (B2C). Industries and therefore multiples vary widely. Commentary is below. If you’re looking for data on SaaS multiples, check out our post from last week.

Social media came down to 15.6x. Multiples rose steadily through 2020 peaking at 22.7x on median in Q1 2021. Q2 was a different story, with multiples back down to ~16x. Since 2016 the multiple has hovered around ~11.6x, so the space is still strong relative to historical long run performance. YOY growth in the space is fantastic (40% on median), with Snap and Pinterest leading the way (50%+ YOY growth). Facebook is still the monster in the space with $94bln of annual revenue and a phenomenal EBITDA margin (48%).

Travel marketplaces have made a big comeback. Multiples hit 10.6x in Q2 which is remarkable for a business that traditionally trades no greater than ~3x. Booking.com is trading at an especially strong 17x and is the only company to maintain its profitability over the last 12 months ($551mm).

Traditional marketplace multiples vary widely. Prior to Q3 2018, the sector only had 2 companies and now has 10. The median multiple is now 10.2x, but Fiverr and AirBnB have extraordinary multiples (31x and 26x). Etsy grows 134% YOY with $2.0bln of revenue, and a solid 28% EBITDA margin. The multiples for these top performers are very high, whereas flatter growth cash generators like Shutterttock and eBay trade at ~4x. AirBnB burns $1 for every $1 of revenue, with an anemic EBITDA margin of -95%.

Labor intensive space. The only reason we even include these companies in our analysis is because investors like Softbank insist on labelling these services businesses as tech co’s. At best, they’re tech enabled which isn’t the same thing at all. Remember when Groupon was a high flier? Well today it has stopped growing (-35% YOY growth) and trades at 1.0x revenue. Cash on the books represents half the market cap. This was one of the fastest growing companies ever that came up during the recession of ’08, and now no one cares. Redfin and Opendoor feel especially overvalued. OpenDoor and Compass don’t make money, which is a very dangerous place to be for services businesses of their size.

Other Outliers. DraftKings trades at 22x its $838mm of revenue. DoorDash trades at 12x it’s $3.6bln in revenue. DraftKings lights money on fire (-118% EBITDA margin) whereas DoorDash is knocking on the door of break-even (-8% margin).

Rideshare has a great multiple. Lyft is at 8.6x revenue while Uber is holding strong at 9.1x revenue. We suspect the revenue multiple for both would be higher, but both businesses light cash on fire. Lyft’s EBITDA margin is -83%. Uber’s EBITDA is -$4.0bln while Lyft is at -$1.6bln. It’s hard to envision either company generating cash any time in the near future given their current market share and very high levels of burn, and keep in mind food delivery saved Uber during 2020.

Subscription. B2C subscription is an excellent business model and trades at 7.9x revenue, which frankly is pretty reasonable relative to the rest of the group. Care.com no longer trades as it got acquired by IAC in December 2019 for $500mm (2.5x revenue). Match is at 16x revenue, Bumbl is below that at 9.5x. Bumbl and Match both have wonderful profitability and high margins (16% and 34% respectively).

Gaming. The median revenue multiple of 6.1x is strong. SciPlay is an underperformer at 0.2x while Roblox is at a very high 48.1x while being the only cash burner in the group. Roblox just got hit with a $200mm lawsuit over music rights (June 2021), which for a business with -$277mm in EBITDA could be painful. They do have plenty of cash to handle any hit ($1.6bln).

Ecommerce is varied. The sector is the least attractive to investors, with a median revenue multiple of 2.1x. There is a big difference between what we would call premium ecommerce like Carvana, Coursera, Chewy, and Amazon (7.5x, 15.6, 4.3x, 4.0x), versus weak ecommerce like Blue Apron (0.3x revenue). Chewy has excellent customer retention metrics though and will likely be a premium ecom player for years to come, if not a nice acquisition target. Note that the margins in ecommerce are really tight with a median EBITDA margin of 3%. Amazon is at 14%, but $14bln of their $23bln of 2020 operating income (61%) came from AWS, whereas AWS was $45bln of their $386bln of net sales in 2020 (12%).

Hardware is elevated at ~6x. ­Hardware is at 6x, but historically traded at ~3x. Roku is the standout of the group (21x) as it’s growing at a strong 64% YOY. Peloton trades at 8.5x on 156% YOY growth thanks to covid. Apple’s growth is 21%, very strong for a company with $100bln in annual sales and a 31% margin.

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